The Programme Evaluation and Review
Technique (PERT) is employed for planning and controlling the projects
involving uncertainties.
PERT is an event-oriented technique. Its
basis is a network of events in which the activities are derived by connecting
the events. It lays stress on measuring the uncertainty in activity times by
using the three-times duration estimation method. For computation of critical
path, the PERT three-times probabilistic network is converted into a
single-time deterministic CPM Model. PERT studies the implications of
uncertainties on project time scheduling and slack of events by employing
statistical tools.
Modelling PERT Network
Two special features of PERT distinguish
it from the other network analysis techniques. These are emphasis upon events
rather than activities and the use of three-times estimate for activity
duration.
The PERT network-making approach is to
identify the milestones necessary for successful completion of the project.
These milestones are then depicated in the from of a key-events network showing
their sequence and interdependence. After this, the events visualized between
the milestones are added and their interrelationship established. These event
nodes represent points in time which are generaly terminal in nature. The
activities are derived by interconnecting the events. The event diagram thus
obtained is converted into event-oriented PERT network using the network
drawing rules.
The steps involved in this technique are:
a) Identification of key events or milestones
which must occur during the project execution.
b) Determination of the sequence and
interdependence of the key events.
c) Incorporation of events (or activities)
between the milestones, generally conforming to their sequence of occurrence.
d) Connection of events, maintaining their
interdependence.
This gives the project flow diagram from
which the network can be drawn directly using the network drawing rules.
It may be noted that while determining the
three-time estimate, the optimistic and pessimistic times should be assessed
first. These two extremes bracket the most likely time, thus helping the
planners to concentrate within this range. There is also a tendency of planners
to either use the same figure for all the three times (say 9, 9 and 9) or
arrive at the most likely time first and then arrive at the optimistic and
pessimistic time by subtracting and adding an equal amount (say 6, 9 and 12).
These trends should be avoided because such estimates are likely to be
conservative.