A project consists of a large
number of activities, scheduling of which by the conventional method of
generally difficult. In case, the projects are not properly scheduled, they
tend to extend beyond the expected date and cause heavy losses to the organization
(firm).
The following important points
should be considered before starting scheduling of any projects:
· The contracting firms shall be able to meet the
commitments, if there is proper scheduling.
·
A firm can face competition if there is proper
scheduling.
· Scientific scheduling of a project is an
important factor, particularly for the firm engaged in turn key projects.
· Scheduling of a project can be performed through
Critical Path Analysis (CPA).
· Critical Path Analysis is an important device
for the scheduling of a job. It is a synthesis of two independent techniques
viz. Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and Critical Path Method.
· PERT was first developed by the Naval Engineers
of USA and the Navy incharge of the Polaris Missile Project.
· Both are methods viz. CPM and PERT are only
superficially different; they have many things in common and they are combined
into a technique called Critical Path Analysis (CPA).
· CPM is an activity-oriented technique, while
PERT is an event-oriented technique. An event means the beginning or the ending
of one or more activities. The PERT network diagram uses the line and arrow to
conceptualize the events (shows by circles o) which are related to each other.
·
CPM has one time estimate, while PERT has three
different time estimates.
The relation between an event and an activity
·
PERT uses three time estimates.
§ Optimistic
time (a)
§ Most likely
time (m)
§ Pessimistic
time (b)
§ Optimistic
Time
In the
case of optimistic time, it is presumed that everything will work according to
the estimation of minimum possible time. An activity takes place in ideal
conditions. No problem is made for any delay. This estimated time is denoted by
‘a’.
§ Most Likely
Time
In this
case, activities take place in a normal way, with a few delays and setbacks
here and there. The most likely time lies between the optimistic time and it is
denoted by ‘m’.
§ Pessimistic
Time
In this
case, the time is based on the presumption that everything will run badly. It is
the max = mum possible time taken into consideration for the completion of an
activity. But it does not, however, include such unforeseen events like labour
strikes, natural calamities etc. This time factor is denoted by ‘b’.
§ Expected
Time or Average
According
to distribution we can get the expected time (t) by adding together 1/6th
of the optimistic time, 2/3rd of the most likely time and 1/6th
of the pessimistic time estimates.
te (expected time) = 1/6 a + 2/3 m + 1/6 b
OR
te = a +
4m + b / 6
performances
of these activities depend upon several factors like equipment, personnel
problems etc. To keep the schedule, additional resources are provided for
facing difficulties, if they arise in any of the activities.
The equation
is important for PERT analysis. The expected time shows that there are equal
chances of getting the job done within that time limit.
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